Ireland Thinks polling provides "Temperature Check" on public opinion on climate action

Including: Mary Lou McDonald and Leo Varadkar least trusted leaders on climate action, half of people think government not doing enough, clear majority think the EPA was wrong to delete their meat tweet.

With just under three weeks to go the start of the UN climate negotiations in Dubai, and with the Government due to publish the 2024 Climate Action Plan at the same time, Friends of the Earth has published “Temperature Check”, its annual Ireland Thinks poll findings on the state of public opinion on climate action.

Key Ireland Thinks findings include:

• Almost 2 in 3 people (63%) are more worried about the impacts of climate change than they were two years ago
  
  
• Almost 1 in 2 people (46%) think the Government “is not doing enough, fast enough, to cut Ireland’s pollution”
  
  
• Mary Lou McDonald is the party leader the public thinks least prioritises climate change, with Leo Varadkar second from bottom. Eamon Ryan is top rated
  
  
• A clear majority of people think the EPA was wrong to delete their tweet about eating less meat after criticism from the IFA (52% to 40%) and 2 in 3 people support the idea of revising the “food pyramid” to take into account climate and environmental impacts
  
  
• The public support an indefinite pause on new data centres by 58% to 42%, excluding don’t knows
  
  
• 1 in 5 people said the deflation of SUV tyres by climate activists would make them less likely to buy an SUV. 1 in 10 said it would make them more likely to buy one!
  
  
• 3 in 4 people think the government should plan to upgrade all state owned housing to be more energy efficient by 2030
  
  
• More than 2 in 3 people think no new oil and gas boilers should be installed by 2031 at the latest

Commenting on the results, Friends of the Earth chief executive, Oisín Coghlan said:

“These poll results should give the Government the confidence to scale up climate action urgently in the 2024 Climate Action Plan due out shortly. Two thirds of people are more worried about climate change than they were two years ago and half don’t think the government is doing enough to tackle it.

“And the opposition has work to do too. As the Sinn Fein Ard Fheis opens the poll finds that the public think Mary Lou is the party leader that least prioritises climate action. In our view Sinn Fein is getting more and more serious about climate policy but their leader still has some work to do to convince the public of her climate credentials. I look forward to seeing how she addresses this issue in her leader’s speech at this weekend’s Ard Fheis.”

Analysing the Ireland Thinks polling results in more detail reveals interesting findings:

Q1. Almost 2 in 3 people (63%) are more worried about the impacts of climate change than they were two years ago. 

• By age, the over 65’s were the most likely to be more worried. 
• There were no significant regional variations, so no sign of an urban-rural divide on concern about climate change, a finding repeated in research by the EPA, the ESRI and other opinion polling. 
• Neither were there significant variations by income among those earning over €20,000 to over €80,000 (both 65%). Nor was there any meaningful variation based on educational qualifications. Those without a leaving certificate were only marginally less worried than those with a third level degree (61% to 65%, compared to 63% overall).
• That said, those earning less than €20,000 at 55%, those in local authority housing at 47%, and those unemployed at 41% were notably less likely to be more worried than the two years ago, suggesting that more immediate material concerns may were playing a role. Private renters however were just as likely as the general public to be more worried (62%).
• The most striking gap was between people who were retired, 74% of whom were more worried than two years ago, and students, only 55% of whom were more worried. This could indicate that younger people were already quite worried two years ago or that retired people have more time to reflect on the threat from climate change than students.

Q.2 Almost 1 in 2 people (46%) think the Government “is not doing enough, fast enough, to cut Ireland’s pollution”

• Meanwhile 27% of people think the Government is doing about the right amount and 26% of people think they are doing “too much, too fast”.
• The demograhic gaps are greater on the issue of government performance than on concern about climate.
• Students (70%) and younger people under 35 (64%) are most critical of government for not doing enough, while people over 65% are least likely to voice that criticism (34%). There are, however, still more older people who think the government isn’t doing enough (34%) than who think there are doing too much (22%). 
• Women are more critical of government performance than men, with 50% of women saying the government is not doing enough compared to 42% of men. And 31% of men think the government is doing too much too fast compared to just 22% of women.
• There is more regional variation here also, with 38% of people in Connacht-Ulster saying the government isn’t doing enough compared to 46% nationally and 33% saying the government is doing too much, compared to 26% nationally, an 8 and 7 percentage point gap respectively. However, there are still more people in Connacht-Ulster saying the government isn’t doing enough (38%) than people saying the government is doing too much (33%).
• There is a clear correlation between education and being critical of the government for not doing enough with 1 in 3 of those without a leaving cert holding that position compared to almost 3 in 5 of those with a third level degree. While the correlation is almost as clearcut by income as well, a plurality in all income categories think the government isn’t doing enough 
• In fact, the only demographic segments where more people think the government is doing too much rather than too little are those without a leaving cert, those renting from the Council and those unable to work (but not the unemployed).

Q.3 Mary Lou McDonald is the party leader the public thinks least prioritises climate change, with Leo Varadkar second from bottom

Ireland Thinks asked people to rate each party leader out of 10, where 10 is “strongly prioritising the response to climate change”. 

• Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein rated lowest with an average score of 4.1. Even within her own party’s voters Ms McDonald only scored 5.6, the lowest score of any party leader among their own voters.
• Fine Gael leader, Leo Varadkar, was second from bottom on 4.6
• The leader who scored highest was Eamon Ryan of the Green Party who scored 6.5, with 28% people giving him 10/10. No other leader had more than 7% awarding them 10/10.

The full results are as follows:

 

 

Q.4&5 A clear majority of people think the EPA was wrong to delete their tweet about eating less meat after criticism from the IFA (52% to 40%) and 2 in 3 people support the idea of revising the “food pyramid” to take into account climate and environmental impacts.

The precise questions and results were as follows:

“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently deleted a tweet which suggested people consider reducing their red meat consumption slowly as one way to reduce their pollution, after criticism from the Irish Farmers Association (IFA). Were the EPA right or wrong to delete the tweet ?” 52% wrong, 40% right and 8% don’t know. Excluding don’t knows that’s 57% to 43%.

“Would you support a review of the Government’s ‘Healthy Eating Guidelines’ to consider the environmental and climate impacts of dietary choices while continuing to ensure nutritional wellbeing?” 63% yes and 26% no with 10% not sure. Excluding don’t knows that’s 70% to 30%

There was a significant gender gap on this question too, with women supporting a revision of the dietary guidelines by almost 4 to 1 (70% to 18%), whereas among men it was less than 2 to 1 (56% to 35%). 

 

Q.6 The public support an indefinite pause on new data centres by 58% to 42%, excluding don’t knows.

48% of people strongly support or tend to support an indefinite pause on new data centres compared to 15% who strong or tend to oppose. 

In 2022 data centres used 18% of Ireland’s total electricity (more than all urban homes) up from 14% in 2021 (more than all rural homes). By 2030 Eirgird estimates that almost a third of all Ireland’s electricity will be used by data centres, compared to an EU average of less than 3%. Activist groups like Not Here Not Anywhere have been campaigning to “Press Pause” and Friends of the Earth has called for a complete moratorium on new data centres until they no longer threaten to colonize our power system and drive up demand for fossil fuel energy.

 

Q.7 One in five people said the deflation of SUV tyres by climate activists would make them less likely to buy an SUV. 1 in 10 said it would make them more likely.

 

 

Q.8 Three in four people think the government should plan to upgrade all state owned housing to be more energy efficient by 2030.

Currently, the Government only plans to upgrade a quarter of state owned housing by 2030, 36,000 out of an estimated 150,000 social homes. Friends of the Earth and a variety of social NGOs have been calling for all social homes to prioritised, both to tackle energy poverty and to demonstrate a commitment to reaching the “furthest behind first” when it comes to climate action, in the spirit of the UN sustainable development goals and leaving no one behind. 

 

Q.9 More than 2 in 3 people think no new oil and gas boilers should be installed by 2031 at the latest

While a clear majority of the public think that no new oil or gas boliers should be installed in factories, homes or offices by 2031, they are split on just how soon it should happen. One in five people say it should be quite soon, in 2027, 1 in 10 opt for 2029 and 3 in 10 opt for 2031. Another 1 in 4 do not support setting any deadline for ending the installation of new fossil fuel boilers and another 1 in 5 are not sure. Excluding don’t knows 68% of people think the end date for new fossil fuel boilers should be 2031 at the latest.

This is an issue the government (this one or the next) will have to make a final decision on within a couple of years to allow adequate lead in time for businesses and households. It is an essential step if Ireland is to live within the binding carbon budgets set by the Dáil and achieve the ultimate decarbonisation objective laid down in law of near zero climate pollution by 2050 at the latest. Every new boiler installed has an operational, and polluting, lifespan of 20 years or more.

Notes:

1. The full Ireland Thinks results set can be downloaded here:   https://www.friendsoftheearth.ie/assets/files/pdf/ireland_thinks_combined_results_november_2023.pdf
2. Polling was carried out by Ireland Thinks in two waves, in July and September. Questions 1,2,4,5,6 were carried out in the September wave and questions 3,7,8,9 in the July wave. July Wave: Carried out on 3rd July, 2023, with a sample size of 1,413 (Margin of Error: +/- 2.7 per cent). September Wave: Carried out on 25th September, 2023, with a sample size of 1,060 (Margin of Error: +/- 3.1 per cent).