Climate action cannot be a bargaining chip in government formation

Regional independents split on climate law, must not derail action

Reports from state bodies - IFAC, SEAI and CCAC  - outline the climate challenge the next Government faces 

As discussions on government formation ramp up, Friends of the Earth has called on all political parties and independents to treat climate breakdown as the emergency it is, and to affirm their commitment to uphold the climate law passed on a cross-party basis by the last Dáil and to the international obligations Ireland has agreed to. 

The climate justice organisation pointed out that three of the group of independent TDs angling to support a Fianna Fail - Fine Gael coalition voted against the 2021 Climate Act - Sean Canney, Verona Murphy, and Carol Nolan  - while three of them voted in favour  - Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish and Marian Harkin.

Regardless of who makes up the next Government, they will have to deliver on legally binding carbon budgets nationally, as well the 2030 emission reduction targets agreed with our EU partners. It is also essential that the state leads the transformation of our energy system in a way that reduces poverty and inequality and Friends of the Earth is demanding that action on energy poverty and data centres are prioritised in Programme for Government negotiations. 

Commenting, Oisin Coghlan,  chief executive of  Friends of the Earth said:

“We need to hear from the regional independents where they stand on climate action. Three of them voted against the climate law and three of the voted in favour. Who is speaking for them on climate in the government formation talks and what are they saying? Is it Michael Lowry or Sean Canney who voted for and against respectively.

“And we need to hear from the outgoing, and incoming, Taoiseach and Tánaiste who led the Government that passed the climate law and agreed our 2030 targets with the EU, will they uphold the climate law and progress a just transition to a zero pollution Ireland no matter who they are in Government with next?”

All political parties and independents must take account of the following developments in recent weeks:

• While climate was 6th on the Exit Poll list of issues  that swayed voters in the general election, down from 5th in 2020, this came ahead of crime, childcare and value for money in public spending, issues that will consume plenty of political and media time in the coming years. 
  
  
• A striking finding in the Exit Poll was that 51% of voters thought the outgoing government “has not gone far enough to address climate change”, compared to only 20% who thought they had gone too far. Crucially, 47% of Fianna Fáil voters and 44% of Fine Gael voters think the Government they led hasn’t gone far enough. Only 14% of them think the Government went too far.
  
  
• The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council recently warned. ‘If [existing climate measures are] not implemented, then the State would be further from its climate objectives and would face much higher compliance costs, potentially as high as €20 billion. A transfer of as much as €20 billion would be a colossal waste of taxpayers’ money — equivalent to virtually an entire year’s capital budget. Instead of transferring this money to neighbouring countries, the next government should take more effective action to avoid these costs, reduce energy costs and pollution, and improve people’s health.’ [1]
  
  
• The SEAI report this week said that ‘it is also likely that Ireland’s transport and electricity emissions will exceed their sectoral emission ceiling in the first carbon budget (2021-2025). Any emissions that exceed the first carbon budget are carried over into the second carbon budget, where they will need to be addressed by even more intensive policies and measures.’ 
  
  
• The SEAI also highlighted ‘electricity demand from data centres has increased by 412% since 2015’ and noted ‘Additional electricity demand must be outpaced by increased installed capacity for renewable generation, if we are to decarbonise Ireland electricity system further, all else being equal. Electricity demand must be managed to ensure that Ireland stays within the confines of our carbon budgets, sectoral emission ceilings, and energy demand reduction targets.’ [2]
  
  
• The Climate Change Advisory Council stated this week as part of its proposed carbon budgets to 2040 that ‘Ireland has not risen to meet its climate change challenges and is currently set to miss its agreed carbon budget to 2030...If we do not act the Council has said that there will be profound costs to the Irish economy and to the people of Ireland.’
  
  
• The Council emphasised that ‘As an absolute imperative, fossil fuels must be phased out as early as 2039’ and that ‘Government must prioritise investment and resources now to save people and businesses money by phasing out fossil fuels to avoid future fines and compliance costs, maintain competitiveness in a low-carbon world and enhance resilience to climate change’. Friends of the Earth underlines that further fossil fuel infrastructure, in particular LNG, would run directly counter to this conclusion.
  
  
• The Advisory Council also highlighted ‘While the transition will bring significant political and social challenges, it presents us with an opportunity to achieve a more sustainable society, a cleaner environment with improved health and well-being for all of our citizens. A crucial step to help achieve this is for Government to prioritise investment and resources, now, by phasing out harmful fossil fuels as early as 2039 and saving people and businesses money.’ [3]

 

Oisin Coghlan continued:

“The Dáil declared a climate emergency in 2019 and passed a strong climate law in 2021. Climate action cannot be a bargaining chip in government formation. The climate emergency is not just another item on the political agenda, it we fail on climate nothing else will matter.

‘Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voted for the climate law, and remain committed to its obligations - this must be clearly articulated in the Programme for Government. 

“We also have to remember that this isn’t simply an abstract exercise in reducing emissions numbers -  climate breakdown is accelerating and if left unchecked, its impacts will destroy our way of life. Equally the responses across the different sectors can fundamentally improve quality of life and the resilience of communities. ‘

“There is a false narrative that climate action simply boils down to cost. Evidently major infrastructure projects require significant investments. However, the economic reality is that the cost of inaction is far higher than the cost of action. The state is already spending billions on fossil fuel subsidies each year, while energy and heating bills are increasing due to reliance on expensive and dirty gas, coal and oil. 

Sean McLouglin, Climate Policy Campaigner  for Friends of the Earth, said:

“The science is clear: the world must halve emissions by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C and prevent catastrophic climate impacts. As wildfires, floods, and extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity, and the most vulnerable continue to pay the highest price, the urgency of the situation demands leadership and immediate action, particularly by developed countries such as Ireland.

“The decisions made in the coming weeks will define the trajectory of Ireland’s response to the escalating climate emergency. The measures agreed to in any Programme for Government must set us on a clear path to meeting, in a just and equitable manner, our legally binding obligations. If the next government does not place faster, fairer climate action at the heart of its agenda, it will leave no doubt as to where the blame lies when potentially billions in EU fines for climate inaction are extracted from the public purse.

"Two crucial policy priorities must be the guarantee of warm homes for all and an immediate moratorium on the expansion of data centres."

Calling on the next Government to guarantee warm homes for all, Clare O’Connor, Programme Coordinator for Friends of the Earth, said:

“A long-term plan to reduce high energy costs and phase-out fossil fuel heating in homes must be a non-negotiable in the next Programme for Government.

“Ireland has an obligation to meet its EU climate commitments - including binding energy savings targets and an obligation to address energy poverty. If political parties fail to set out a plan to address energy poverty, ramp up renewable heating, and improve housing conditions, Ireland risks falling behind other nations, undermining its pathway to becoming leaders in a just energy transition. It would also leave households exposed to global shocks like the recent energy crisis.

“Cold, damp, and inefficient homes aren’t just a climate issue—they’re a public health emergency. Families living in these conditions face higher risks of respiratory illnesses and mental health challenges. Addressing energy poverty by improving housing conditions and better targeting energy supports will save lives, reduce healthcare costs, and ensure every family in Ireland can live in a warm, comfortable home.

“This government must now deliver on the Housing for All commitment to introduce minimum BER standards in the rental sector from 2025, with safeguards for tenants against evictions and rent increases and appropriate support for landlords.”

Jerry Mac Evilly, Head of Policy for Friends of the Earth, said:

“Runaway data centre development can no longer be ignored by Government. Ireland is a complete outlier and its international reputation has suffered, becoming a poster child for unchecked unsustainable expansion with soaring electricity demand and weak regulation.

“New expert research from UCC [4], commissioned by Friends of the Earth, reveals a stark picture concerning increased use of fossil fuels by data centres and how its soaring gas consumption is both undermining climate action and energy security. The analysis also highlights that recent renewable energy growth has merely been absorbed by data centre demand, instead of reducing use of fossil fuels. 

“In terms of Programme for Government negotiations, political parties must support a legal moratorium on connecting more data centres until the proposed policy framework in this expert research has been implemented and the threats data centres pose to climate, energy security and customers bills have been removed.”

Notes

1 https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Fiscal-Assessment-Report-December-2024-1.pdf 

2 https://www.seai.ie/news-and-events/news/energy-in-ireland-2024 

3 https://www.climatecouncil.ie/news/press-release-carbon-budget-proposal.html 

4 See research of Prof Hannah Daly here - https://www.friendsoftheearth.ie/assets/files/pdf/data_centrres_and_the_carbon_budgets_-_prof_hannah_daly_dec_2024.pdf