No sign of climate “backlash” in Irish public opinion

New research from Ireland Thinks shows people concerned about climate change, supportive of climate action, with no sign of urban-rural divide, and some interesting variation by party voting intention

To mark Earth Day, Friends of the Earth has published the first wave of results from a major new study of public attitudes to climate change and climate action policies, carried out by Ireland Thinks. Dr Kevin Cunningham, managing director at Ireland Thinks, will present the findings at a conference on Faster and Fairer Climate Action in Dublin today [22nd April].

*A slidedeck of the main findings in graphic form here*

*Spreadsheets with detailed demographic breakdowns are here*

Key findings listed below, with demographic highlights

Commenting on the overall results, Oisín Coghlan, Chief Executive of Friends of the Earth said:

"There is no significant shift in Irish public opinion against climate action. The growing “backlash” narrative across Europe seems to be based on vibes more than evidence, at least in Ireland, and is partly the result of a feedback loop between politicians looking for a wedge issue and media looking for a new story. 

“The majority of people in Ireland remain very concerned about climate change and solidly supportive of government action to cut polluting emissions. If anything the data shows they want the Government to do more.

“Roughly a fifth of people name climate as one of the top three priority issues that will influence their vote in the coming elections. That’s a lot more than the 4% who say they will vote Green. Climate is an all-party issue not a one-party issue. 

“There are a lot of climate voters out there who’ll be asking all the candidates canvassers who come to their door what they will do to champion faster and fairer climate action.”

Some key findings:

How serious a problem is climate change?

• When asked to score how serious a problem climate change is on a scale of 0 to 10,  the average score among the respondents was 6.8. That compares to 7.1 in September 2022, so there has been no statistically significant drop in how seriously people view the problem of climate change over the last 18 months.

• An absolute majority of people, 56%, are more worried about climate change than they were 2 years ago. That’s made up of 31% who are somewhat more worried and 25% who are a lot more worried.

Where do people rank climate compared to other issues?

• When asked to name the issues that will most influence their vote in the European elections in June, climate came third at 23%. That compares to 6% who had farming in their top 3 issues. This runs counter to the political and media narrative that sees centre-right politicians in particular watering down their climate and environmental policies for fear of pushback at the polls.

• When asked to rank the issues facing the country, climate comes a solid fifth, with 17% ranking it among their top three issues.

• That compares with 4% who said they would vote Green no.1, so climate is not a Green Party issue, it is an all-party issue. That is borne out in the analysis below of who supports what types of climate action by voting intention.

Are we doing enough?

• 7% of people said climate change “is a big problem and we’re not doing enough to tackle it”. That includes 49% of Sinn Fein voters and 56% of Fine Gael voters.

• Asked specifically about what the Government is doing about climate change, 43% said “the Government is not doing enough, fast enough, to cut Ireland's pollution”.

• Crucially, the 25% saying “The Government is doing too much, too fast, to cut Ireland's pollution” is one point less that gave that answer last year, so there is no sign of an upsurge in anti-climate action sentiment.

Agriculture

• More people agree with the statement that “The model of Irish agriculture based on maximising exports of beef and dairy products is unsustainable and will need to change” than disagree with it, by 43% to 42%.

• 82% of people think we should be “Paying farmers more for what we need most from the land: local food, clean water, and less climate pollution.” 

• 73% think we should be “Regulating the use of chemical nitrogen fertiliser, a major source of water pollution.”

• 50% think we should be “Supporting farmers to diversify away from beef and dairy, two of the most polluting forms of agriculture”, compared with 37% who disagree.

• These are striking findings given Minister McConalogue’s announcement this week that he would not introduce a compensation scheme to support a reduction in dairy numbers.

Transport

• An absolute majority, 53%, strongly support “Continuing to invest twice as much in new public transport as in new roads” as opposed only 6% who strongly oppose it. Overall, 76% support it compared to 13% who oppose it.

• Two thirds of people favour “Targeting grants for electric cars at people in rural areas”, as opposed to being available to anyone on a first-come, first-served basis.

Data Centres

• An absolute majority of people support “an indefinite pause on connecting new data centres to the electricity and gas grids”, by 51% to 31%.

Demographic highlights by issue:

How serious a problem do people think climate change is? (2 questions)

When asked to score how serious a problem climate change is on a scale of 0 to 10,  the average score among the respondents was 6.8. That compares to 7.1 in September 2022, so there has been no statistically significant drop in how seriously people view the problem of climate change over the last 18 months.

Younger people, under 35, and older people, 65 and over are more worried than other age groups. Women are noticeably more worried that men (7.4 to 6.2). There is no significant variation by region (Dublin 6.9, Connacht-Ulster 6.6) oy by income.

There is some variation by voter intention: Green voters are over 9, Labour and Soc Dems and PBP are over 8, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are over 7. But all of those parties’ voters are higher than the national average score of 6.8. Sinn Fein voters on 6.6 are marginally lower than the national average. Only those planning to vote for independents and Aontu, with scores below 5, are well below the national average.

When asked were they more or less worried than they were two years ago:

An absolute majority of people, 56%, are more worried about climate change than they were 2 years ago. That’s made up of 31% who are somewhat more worried and 25% who are a lot more worried.

There is a noticeable gender gap, with 29% of women a lot more worried compared to 20% of men. And the biggest shift is among older people, 65% of whom are more worried than they were two years ago, including 30% who are a lot more worried.

There is no variation by region and very little by income.

Where do people rank climate compared to other issues? (2 questions)

It’s one thing to think that climate change is a serious problem. But of course we know there are many serious problems in the world. It’s important to see where people rank climate compared to other important issues.

When asked to name the issues that will most influence their vote in the European elections in June, climate came third at 23%. That compares to 6% who had farming in their top 3 issues. This runs counter to the political and media narrative that sees centre-right politicians in particular watering down their climate and environmental policies for fear of pushback at the polls.

When asked to rank the issues facing the country, climate comes a solid fifth, with 17% ranking it among their top three issues. Well behind the issue of housing, out on its own in first place, and the cost of living, immigration and healthcare that are bunched together. Climate ranks noticeably ahead of another list of issues bunched together, including crime, the economy, poverty and Gaza.

Climate is a somewhat higher priority in Dublin than elsewhere, but the variation between other regions is not significant. On income there is no significant variation between all those who earn less than 80k. Those who earn over 80k a year do rank climate a higher priority. 

There is some variation among political parties. 25% of those supporting Fine Gael have climate in their top 3 issues, along with 26% of Soc Dem voters and 30% of Labour voters. It is lower among Fianna Fail voters and Sinn Fein voters on 14% and 11% respectively. It is lowest among supporting Aontu and independents, at 8%.

Is enough being done to tackle climate change? (2 questions)

Asked are we doing enough to tackle climate change and how big a problem is it, just under half the respondents (47%) said “it is a big problem and we’re not doing enough to tackle it”. That includes 49% of Sinn Fein voters and 56% of Fine Gael voters.

There was relatively minor variation by region (51% in Dublin and 43% in Connacht-Ulster) and by income (a range of 46% to 53%). Those between the ages of 35-44 were most concerned and action oriented (58%) and those between 44-55 were less so (41%).

The key takeaway is that there is no sign of a significant decline in public support for climate action, let alone a groundswell of pushback or backlash, contrary to some political and media narratives. The percentage saying we’re not doing enough, at 47%, is exactly the same as it was in 2021, albeit that it nudged over 50% in the intervening years. Crucially, the percentage saying “its a small problem and we’re doing more than enough”, at 11% is one percentage point higher than is was in 2021. It is worth noting that, at the margins, the percentage saying climate change is not a problem has edged up to 8% from 6% in 2023 and 2022 and 3% in 2021.

Asked specifically about what the Government is doing about climate change, 43% said “the Government is not doing enough, fast enough, to cut Ireland's pollution”.

Crucially, the 25% saying “The Government is doing too much, too fast, to cut Ireland's pollution” is one point less that gave that answer last year. Only 12% of Fine Gael voters think that way, and 18% of Fianna Fáil voters. No great sign there that their voters think the Green tail is wagging the Government dog.

In what could be regarded as some good news for the government 32% now think they “are doing enough, as fast as practical, to cut Ireland's pollution” up 5 points from 27% last year.

Interestingly, 54% of Sinn Fein voters don’t think the Government is doing enough, fast enough. And the same is true of 88% of Green Party voters. 

Opinions on particular policy areas: our car-dependent transport system (2 questions)

Asked about the overall government aim of reducing our dependence on cars from 3 out of every 4 journeys now to 1 out of every 2 journeys in 2030, it does not currently have majority support. 38% strongly support it or tend to support it and 48% strongly oppose it or tend to oppose it.

There is a significant gender gap with women only marginally opposing it 43% to 40% whereas men oppose it 52% to 36%.

People under 34 are the only age group where a majority support the goal, by 49% to 40%.

The differing results among voters for political parties were interesting however. Fine Gael voters clearly supported the aim by 48% to 36%. And absolute majorities of voters for Labour, the Soc Dems, People Before Profit and the Greens all supported the strategy, compared to a third of Sinn Fein and Fianna Fáil voters. Opposition was highest among those voting Aontu and independent.

When it came to concrete measures to reduce our dependence on cars, there was far more public support overall. This is the opposite of of the usual narrative about climate action that people support it in principle but not in practice.

An absolute majority, 53%, strongly support “Continuing to invest twice as much in new public transport as in new roads” as opposed only 6% who strongly oppose it. Overall, 76% support it compared to 13% who oppose it.

Two thirds of people favour “Targeting grants for electric cars at people in rural areas”, as opposed to being available to anyone on a first-come, first-served basis.

We know people like public transport when it’s there, so perhaps it’s not surprising that 84% favour “Fast-tracking new LUAS lines for Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick”

More surprisingly, there is also significant support for changes to how cars and driving are taxed and charged, with 43% supporting “Congestion charges in cities, starting in Dublin” compared to 39% opposed. And support and opposition to “Taxing cars by weight as well as emissions” is evenly split at 41%, with the remainder unsure.

One measure to reduce our dependence on petrol and diesel cars is more polarising: only 14% strongly support the “removal of some parking spaces in city and town centres”, while 34% strongly oppose it. Overall 48% oppose the move while 33% support it.

Opinions on particular policy areas: data centres

An absolute majority, 51%, support “an indefinite pause on connecting new data centres to the electricity and gas grids”, given their growing share of Irish electricity use, compared to 31% who oppose a pause. That is even stronger support for a pause then when we asked the same question last year and results were 48% to 35%.

Opinions on particular policy areas: agriculture (2 questions)

On the perennially controversial issue of Irish agriculture’s role as the sector which produces the the largest share of our climate-destablising pollution, there were some interesting findings.

More people agree with the statement that “The model of Irish agriculture based on maximising exports of beef and dairy products is unsustainable and will need to change” than disagree with it, by 43% to 42%.

That is true not only in Dublin (44-40) but also in the rest of Leinster (42-40) and in Munster (45-42). Connacht-Ulster is the only region where more people support the current business model of Irish agriculture (46-38)

Interestingly, people under 35 and those 65 and over are strongest in their belief that the current model of agriculture has to change.

Support for concrete measures to help farmers transition to a more sustainable model of agriculture is high:

82% of people think we should be “Paying farmers more for what we need most from the land: local food, clean water, and less climate pollution.”

73% think we should be “Regulating the use of chemical nitrogen fertiliser, a major source of water pollution.”

50% think we should be “Supporting farmers to diversify away from beef and dairy, two of the most polluting forms of agriculture”, compared with 37% who disagree. So even some people don’t think the business model of Irish agriculture is unsustainable still think we should support farmers to move away from depending on it.

ENDS

Notes:

1. The fieldwork for the poll was carried out by Ireland Thinks from April 12 - 16 2024, with nationally representative sample of 1,704 people. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 per cent.
2. The Ireland Thinks report is online here: https://bit.ly/ClimateInsights2024a
3. The Ireland Thinks spreadsheets with demographic breakdowns by question is online here: https://bit.ly/Demographics2024a